America roundup: Dollar climbs as data backs bigger rate hikes, Wall Street rallies, gold hits 1-week high, oil drops around 3%, still above $110 a barrel – March 25, 2022

Market overview

• Continuing US Unemployment Claims 1,350,000, 1,410,000 forecast, 1,419,000 previous

• US Unemployment Insurance claims 4-week average 211.75K, previous 223.00K

• US initial unemployment claims 187,000, forecast 212,000, previous 214,000

• US Durable Goods Orders in February (monthly) -0.6%, 0.6% forecast, 0.7% previous

• US Current Account (Q4) -217.9 billion, -218.0 billion forecast, -214.8 billion previous

• US Durable Goods Orders in February (monthly) -2.2%, -0.5%, previous 1.6%

• US Mar Manufacturing PMI 58.5, 56.3 forecast, 57.3 previous

• US Mar Markit Composite PMI 58.5, previous 55.9

• US Mar Services PMI 58.9, 56.0 forecast, 56.5 previous

• US KC Mar Fed Composite Index 37, 29 previous

• US KC Fed Manufacturing Index 46 , previous 31

Forward-looking economic data (GMT)

• No data forthcoming

Future Outlook – Events, Other Releases (GMT)

• No upcoming events

Currency summaries

EUR/USD: The euro weakened against the dollar on Thursday as economic data on the US labor market bolstered expectations that the US Federal Reserve will be more aggressive in taking action to curb inflation. Initial weekly jobless claims fell to a seasonally adjusted 187,000 last week, the lowest level since September 1969 and below the 212,000 forecast. While new orders for durable goods fell unexpectedly in February as shipments slowed, demand for goods remained strong. The data and recent comments from Federal Reserve officials have bolstered the view that the central bank will raise rates by more than 25 basis points at its next policy meeting in May. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.1028(5DMA), a break up can trigger a rise towards 1.1056 (38.2% fib). On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.0991(14DMA), a break below could take the pair towards 1.0953 (23.6% lie).

GBP/USD: The pound fell against the dollar on Thursday as data showing resilient UK business activity in March failed to support the currency for which traders now expect a slowdown in the Bank of England’s monetary tightening . the jobs data fueled speculation that the Federal Reserve would raise interest rates by half a percentage point at its next policy meeting in May, giving the greenback a boost. The British pound was last down 0.16% against the dollar at $1.3186. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.3209 (38.2% fib), a break up can trigger a rise towards 1.3269 (50% fib). On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.3168 (9DMA), a break below could take the pair towards 1.3130 (23.6% fib).

USD/CAD: The Canadian dollar strengthened Thursday to hit a two-month high against its U.S. counterpart, marking its eighth straight day of gains, as Wall Street rallied and national attention turned to a upcoming speech by a senior Bank of Canada official. The price of oil, one of Canada’s top exports, settled down 2.25% to $112.34 a barrel as EU countries remained divided on whether to directly sanction oil and Russian gas. The loonie was trading up 0.2% at 1.2535 against the greenback, after touching its highest intraday level since Jan. 21 at 1.2510. The currency’s eight-day winning streak was the longest since August 2016. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.2552 (5 DMA), a bullish breakout can trigger a rise towards 1.2583 (38.2 %fib). On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.2507. (23.6%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.2478 (BB lower).

USD/JPY: The dollar stabilized for the fifth consecutive session against the yen on Thursday. Economic data in the US labor market reinforced expectations that the Fed will be more aggressive in its measures to curb inflation. Top Federal Reserve policymakers have signaled all week that they are ready to take more aggressive action to bring down inflation, which has reached decades, including a possible half-point rate hike. percentage at the next political meeting in May. Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari added Thursday that he had planned seven quarter-point interest rate hikes this year, but cautioned against going too far. Strong resistance can be seen at 121.74 (23.6% fib), a break up can trigger a rise towards 122.85 (BB upper). On the downside, immediate support is seen at 121.81 (38.2% fib), a break below could take the pair towards 121.47 (50% fib).

Summary of actions

European stocks edged higher on Thursday, helped by gains in defensive sectors amid concerns over a deepening crisis in Ukraine as Western countries planned more sanctions against Russia.

Britain’s benchmark FTSE 100 closed up 0.09%, Germany’s Dax ended down 0.07%, France’s CAC ended the day down 0.39%.

Major U.S. stock indexes rebounded more than 1% on Thursday, extending the market’s recent rebound, as investors seized on battered shares of chipmakers and big growth names and oil prices tumbled .

The Dow Jones closed up 1.02%, the S&P 500 closed up 1.43%, the Nasdaq stabilized at 1.93%.

Summary of treasury bills

US Treasuries resumed a selloff and bond yields rose on Thursday on new data that added to fears that rapidly rising inflation could prompt the Federal Reserve to tighten policy too much and trigger a slowdown economic.

The 10-year Treasury yield rose 4.2 basis points to 2.363%, while the 30-year US30YT=RR Treasury yield rose 3.3 basis points to 2.553%.

Summary of raw materials

Gold hit a more than a week high on Thursday as concerns over soaring prices and uncertainty surrounding the war in Ukraine boosted bullion’s appeal as a safe haven and hedge against inflation. .

Spot gold rose 1% to $1,963.21 an ounce at 1:48 p.m. EDT (1748 GMT), its highest level since March 14. US gold futures rose 1.3% to $1,962.20.

Crude prices fell about 3% on Thursday after the European Union failed to agree on a plan to boycott Russian oil and reports that exports from Kazakhstan’s Caspian Pipeline Consortium terminal could partially resume.

Brent crude futures fell $2.57, or 2.1%, to $119.03 a barrel, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude fell 2.59 $, or 2.3%, to settle at $112.34.

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