America roundup: Dollar gains ahead of payrolls data, Wall Street ends lower, gold gains, oil slips from decade highs as Iran talks rekindle supply hopes – March 4, 2022

Market overview

• Continuing US Unemployment Claims 1,476,000, 1,475,000 forecast, 1,476,000 previous

• US jobless claims over 4 weeks average 230.50K, previous 236.25K

• US Initial Unemployment Claims 230.50K, 226,000 forecast, 232,000 previous

• US Unit Labor Costs (QoQ) (Q4) 0.9%, 0.3% forecast, 0.3% prior

• US Feb Markit Composite PMI 55.9, 56.0 forecast, 51.1 previous

• US services PMI in February 56.5, forecast 56.7, previous 51.2

• U.S. February ISM non-manufacturing business activity 55.1 59.9 previous

•United States February ISM non-manufacturing 83.1, previous price 82.3

• US ISM non-manufacturing PMI for February 56.5, 61.0 forecast, 59.9 previous

• US Jan Factory Orders (MoM) 1.4%, forecast 0.5%, previous -0.4%

• February ISM non-manufacturing employment in the United States 48.5 52.3 previous

Forward-looking economic data (GMT)

•23:30 Japan Jan Unemployment rate 2.7% forecast, 2.7% previous

•23:30 Japan Jan Jobs to demand ratio 1.16 forecast, 1.16 previous

00:30 Retail sales in Australia (MoM) 1.8% forecast, -4.4% previous

Future Outlook – Events, Other Releases (GMT)

• No significant event

Currency summaries

EUR/USD: The euro was pinned at a 21-month low against the dollar on Thursday as investors worried about the impact of rising oil prices after Russia invaded Ukraine . Russia and Ukraine have agreed on the need to establish humanitarian corridors and a possible ceasefire around them for fleeing civilians, the two sides said after talks on Thursday, while forces Russian invasion forces surrounded and shelled Ukrainian towns as the conflict entered its second week. The euro fell 0.5% to $1.1060 and hit its lowest level since May 2020 again. It is heading for its fourth straight weekly decline against the US dollar. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.1119(38.2%fib), a break up can trigger a rise towards 1.1169(50%fib). On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.1058(23.6%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.1000 (psychological level).

GBP/USD: The pound fell against the dollar on Thursday as traders weighed the impact of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine on monetary policy. The Bank of England remains likely to raise interest rates for a third consecutive meeting this month, but expectations of a European Central Bank rate hike by the end of the year have since diminished. that Russia invaded Ukraine a week ago. Against the dollar, the pound was down 0.2% at $1.3344, with the dollar buoyed by Wednesday’s comments from Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell in which he reiterated his support for a rise in prices. interest rate of 25 basis points this month. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.3346 (50% fib), a break up can trigger a rise towards 1.3412 (61.8% fib). On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.3300 (psychological level), a break below could take the pair towards 1.3266(23.6%fib).

USD/CAD: The Canadian dollar weakened against its US counterpart on Thursday as the price of oil retreated from its highest level in 14 years and the safe-haven greenback rose significantly. The loonie was trading down 0.4% at 1.2685 against the greenback, or 78.83 cents US. Earlier in the day, it touched its highest intraday level since January 26 at 1.2588. The price of oil, one of Canada’s top exports, rose to its highest level since September 2008 at $116.57 a barrel due to the disruption in Russian oil exports, but then fell. US crude prices stabilized 2.7% at $107.67 a barrel. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.2682 (50% fib), a break up can trigger a rise towards 1.2734 (61.8% fib). On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.2676 (38.2%fib), a break below could take the pair down to 1.2574 (23.6%fib).

USD/JPY: The dollar strengthened against the yen on Thursday as risk appetite improved after the chairman of the US Federal Reserve tried to quell fears over aggressive interest rate hikes interest. US Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell said on Wednesday the central bank would start raising interest rates “cautiously” this month, but was prepared to act more aggressively if needed, more or less the scenario predicted by traders. The Japanese yen weakened 0.01% to 115.46. per dollar. A strong resistance can be seen at 115.75 (23.6% fib), a break up can trigger a rise towards 116.00 (psychological level). On the downside, immediate support is seen at 115.39 (50% fib), a break below could take the pair towards 115.27(5DMA).

Summary of actions

European stocks ended sharply lower on Thursday, rocked by reports that Russian forces beat scores of people in Ukraine’s capital Kyiv overnight, leading to several explosions.

Britain’s benchmark FTSE 100 closed down 2.57%, Germany’s Dax ended down 2.16%, France’s CAC ended the day down 1.84%.

Wall Street ended lower on Thursday, with growth stocks such as Tesla and Amazon rattling the Nasdaq as the Ukraine crisis kept investors on edge.

The Dow Jones closed 0.29%, the S&P 500 closed 0.53%, the Nasdaq stabilized 1.56%.

Summary of treasury bills

The U.S. Treasury yield curve hit its flattest level since March 2020 on Thursday, as Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell reiterated that he supports a 25 basis point hike this month, and ahead of Friday’s highly anticipated February jobs report.

Yields, which are very sensitive to changes in interest rates, rose 2 basis points to 1.536%. They had fallen to 1.261% on Tuesday, the lowest since February 4.

Benchmark 10-year yields fell 2 basis points to 1.844%, after hitting 1.910% on Wednesday. They fell as low as 1.682% on Tuesday, the lowest since January 5.

Summary of raw materials

Gold rose on Thursday as the Ukraine crisis and soaring inflation boosted demand for safe-haven gold.

Spot gold rose 0.4% to $1,933.31 an ounce and US gold futures rose 0.7% to $1,935.90.

Oil fell 2% on Thursday, after hitting prices not seen in about a decade, as sellers jumped on hopes that the United States and Iran will soon agree on a nuclear deal that could add barrels to a tight global market.

Brent crude futures fell $2.47, or 2.2%, to $110.46 a barrel, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude fell $2.93, or 2 .6%, to $107.67.

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