Composite Currency – The Window http://thewindow.net/ Wed, 23 Nov 2022 21:30:17 +0000 en-US hourly 1 https://wordpress.org/?v=5.9.3 https://thewindow.net/wp-content/uploads/2021/03/thewindow-icon-150x150.png Composite Currency – The Window http://thewindow.net/ 32 32 Wall Street stocks gain as investors cheer on Fed minutes https://thewindow.net/wall-street-stocks-gain-as-investors-cheer-on-fed-minutes/ Wed, 23 Nov 2022 21:30:17 +0000 https://thewindow.net/wall-street-stocks-gain-as-investors-cheer-on-fed-minutes/

Shares on Wall Street closed higher on Wednesday after minutes from the Federal Reserve’s latest policy meeting suggested the U.S. central bank may ease its efforts to raise interest rates.

The S&P 500 index ended the session up 0.6%, while the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite gained 1% after ending the previous day up 1.4%.

The moves came as minutes from the U.S. central bank’s meeting in early November showed a “substantial majority” of officials supported a rapid slowing in the pace of interest rate hikes – although some warned that monetary policy should be tightened more than expected next year.

In government bond markets, the yield on the 10-year US treasury – considered a proxy for global borrowing costs – slipped 0.06 percentage points to 3.7%. The policy-sensitive two-year yield fell 0.03 percentage points to 4.48%. Both yields, which move inversely to debt prices, had been broadly flat before the minutes were released.

The dollar fell further after the release of the minutes, with an index following the US currency against six peers slipping 0.9%.

Stocks and bonds have come under pressure this year as the Fed and its international peers turn the screw on monetary policy in an effort to rein in rapid price growth. Even after a weaker-than-expected US inflation reading for October, markets are pricing in interest rate expectations in the world’s largest economy, peaking at around 5% in June.

After four consecutive increases of 0.75 percentage points, the Fed’s “target range” for benchmark interest rates is between 3.75% and 4%.

Elsewhere on Wednesday, oil prices were lower, with international benchmark Brent crude down 4.1% to just under $85 a barrel.

Oil’s further falls came as concerns over global demand were highlighted by a disappointing report from US purchasing managers. The S&P Global US composite PMI for November, which takes into account the services and factory sectors, hit a three-month low of 46.3, suggesting the pace at which business conditions are deteriorating is worsening.

“Trading conditions in the United States deteriorated in November . . . with production and demand falling at increased rates, in line with the economy contracting at an annualized rate of 1%,” Chris Williamson said. , chief economist at S&P Global Market Intelligence.

PMI reports for the Eurozone also pointed to a continued slowdown in business activity. “The [eurozone] the data suggests the outlook has improved slightly and some tail risks are less likely, but remain consistent with a significant recession,” Barclays said in a note to clients.

The reports come as analysts remain concerned about China, which is launching large-scale lockdowns as it fight epidemics of Covid-19.

The European Stoxx 600 stock index closed up 0.6%. In Asia, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index edged up 0.6%, while China’s CSI 300 added 0.1%. Elsewhere, South Korea’s Kospi gained 0.5%.

Willem Sels, global chief investment officer at HSBC Private Banking, said he was bearish on equities generally, but has recently “dipped” into Chinese retail, hospitality and airlines expecting further support for the country’s struggling real estate sector and gradual easing. zero Covid policies in the second quarter of 2023.

If implemented, the measures would reduce the risks of a real housing crisis and boost economic growth, Sels added. “Add to that very attractive valuations and other underweight investors, and [China] is a good risk-reward ratio.

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Hitting on the 200 week MA https://thewindow.net/hitting-on-the-200-week-ma/ Mon, 21 Nov 2022 06:54:25 +0000 https://thewindow.net/hitting-on-the-200-week-ma/
  • GBP/EUR seems better supported
  • The 200-week moving average is the biggest technical hurdle
  • The stock market rally is key to the pound’s continued advance
  • As market concerns over UK finances fade
  • The key data event is the UK and Eurozone PMI

Image © Pound Sterling Live

Don’t expect any fireworks from the Pound to Euro (GBP/EUR) exchange rate over the next few days, but expect this pair to be better supported if global investor sentiment remains constructive and that the UK PMI data surpasses that of the euro zone.

The pound enters the new week, supported by a continued rally in global equity markets and a positive investor response to last Thursday’s autumn statement in which the government pledged to ensure the stability of the country’s finances in the over the years to come.

For financial markets, boring is better.

“In the short term, there seems to be a sense of relief after the recent carnage we have seen in UK assets. As long as the risk appetite is there, the GBP should be supported,” says Thanim Islam, head of currency analysis at Equals Money. “For most of November, GBPEUR traded sideways in a 1.5% range. Could the relief from the fall statement be enough for GBPEUR to move higher? “

From a technical standpoint, Western Union Business Solutions analyst George Vessey says the GBP/EUR exchange rate should test a key resistance level over the next few days.

“The 200-week simple moving average (SMA) of the GBP/EUR exchange rate currently sits at €1.1505 and acts as a short-term resistance level,” Vessey explains.

Overcoming this level opens the door to further advances, but failure means additional frustration for those looking for a stronger pound.

“The charts don’t have a definitive bias, but…a close above the 200-week SMA would be bullish,” says Vessey.


GBP/EUR technical chart

Above: GBP/EUR at weekly intervals indicating the location of the 200 week moving average.


“Moving averages are considered key indicators by traders and market analysts to identify trends. The indicators appear as lines on a chart and meander up and down with the price movements of any instrument that’s mapped,” says Vessey.

“In this case, we are specifically watching price action around the 200-week moving average. At the height of the pandemic, GBP/EUR fell below its 200-week SMA and remained below for 12 months, before surpassing it in early 2021 and steadily increasing by 7% over the next 12 months,” he adds.

This rally saw the GBP/EUR hit a post-Brexit high just below 1.22 in March this year before reversing towards its 200-week SMA, which broke below in September.

For five straight weeks, the pound has weakened at this key moving average, but a close above could accelerate the recent ascent, Vessey says.

(If you are looking to protect or increase your international payment budget, you may consider securing the current rate for future use, or set an order for your ideal rate when it is reached, more information can be found here.)


GBPEUR

Above: GBP/EUR at daily intervals. Friday’s strong advance improves the immediate technical chart. To better time your payment requirements, consider setting a free exchange rate alert here.


Looking at the data calendar, the highlight for the euro and pound this week is the release of the PMI surveys for November on Wednesday, which will give a first look at how economies in the zone are performing. euro and UK.

“A few PMI releases are due (this) week – important given the deteriorating UK growth outlook – and may disappoint,” said Thomas Flury, strategist at UBS Switzerland AG. “We see weaknesses in the UK economy that would limit any rise in the pound.”

The S&P Global/CIPS manufacturing PMI for November is expected to come in at 45.6 when released at 09:30 GMT, down from 46.2 in October. The services PMI is expected at 48, down from 48.8 in October, the composite PMI is expected to read 47.5, down from 48.2 in October.

Therefore, all readings should be consistent with an economic contraction in November.

Should the data beat expectations, the pound could end up higher, but an undervaluation would have the opposite impact.

“The GBP remains stuck between a rock and a hard place as it awaits further evidence of the severity of the recession so far in the UK economy. In this regard, Wednesday’s flash PMI for November could offer some more up-to-date indications of how much momentum in UK activity has already lost,” says Valentin Marinov, head of G10 FX strategy at Credit Agricole.



Eurozone PMI data comes out half an hour earlier than UK releases: the manufacturing PMI is expected to come in at 46.0, down from 46.4 in October.

Services PMI is expected at 48.1, vs. 48.6 in October, Composite PMI is expected at 47.0, vs. 47.3.

“How will the European Central Bank (ECB) and the markets react to another drop in flash purchasing managers (PMIs)? That’s next week’s challenge,” says Thomas Flury, strategist at UBS Switzerland AG.

“We are positive on the euro over the long term, but we see considerable risk of a setback in the weeks to come,” Flury said.

“We see increasing downside risks for EUR/USD from current levels ahead of the Eurozone November PMIs,” said Valentin Marinov, head of G10 FX strategy at Credit Agricole.

But the ultimate driver for the pound may well be broader investor sentiment, which has been supportive lately.

Markets rallied strongly after the release of October US inflation data on November 10, which suggested the peak of inflation was near.

This has led markets to bet that the Federal Reserve may soon consider slowing its rate hike cycle with a view to making a final hike in early 2023.

The Fed’s interest rate hike has increased the cost of financing not just in the United States, but around the world, over the past few months. This hurt the outlook for global economic growth and cyclical “high beta” currencies such as the pound, which rely on positive investor sentiment.

Therefore, a shift in Fed hike expectations supports global growth, investor sentiment, stock markets and currencies such as the pound.

Analysts say that while the Fed will inevitably slow its rate hike cycle, the road ahead will be bumpy and bouts of risk aversion are likely.

“An unexpected slowdown in US inflation boosted risk sentiment and hurt the USD. But we think markets have gone too far, too soon, as conditions are not yet in place for a decline sustainability of the dollar,” said Thomas Flury, strategist at UBS Switzerland AG.

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GLOBAL MARKETS – Dollar gains, stocks slide as Fed officials talk tough on rates https://thewindow.net/global-markets-dollar-gains-stocks-slide-as-fed-officials-talk-tough-on-rates/ Thu, 17 Nov 2022 16:28:09 +0000 https://thewindow.net/global-markets-dollar-gains-stocks-slide-as-fed-officials-talk-tough-on-rates/

(Adds US market, deadline, fresh prices)

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European stocks fall after early rise

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The dollar regains strength after a hawkish speech from the Fed

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Oil and metals crash in commodity markets

By Herbert Lash and Marc Jones

NEW YORK/LONDON, Nov 17 (Reuters) – The dollar rose and stock markets fell on Thursday after more hawkish remarks from Federal Reserve officials reminded investors that less aggressive monetary policy is unlikely, with US employment data still showing tight labor market.

The nagging recession and concerns over higher interest rates rattled European markets, while the pound fell as Britain hoped to put its recent disastrous fiscal experience behind it with a more austere budget.

Early optimism in Europe about Siemens earnings and the fact that the European Central Bank might slow its rate hikes quickly led to more selling, which was followed on Wall Street by further statements from Fed officials that rates are not high enough.

The U.S. central bank needs to keep raising rates by at least another percentage point, as hikes so far “have had only limited effects on observed inflation,” said James Bullard, chairman of the St. Louis Fed.

Using even “dovish” assumptions, a baseline monetary policy rule would require rates to rise to at least about 5%, while more stringent assumptions would recommend rates above 7%, Bullard said at an event. economy in Louisville, Kentucky.

Market expectations for the Fed’s maximum terminal rate rose slightly to nearly 5% in May and June after tough talks from Bullard and other Fed officials this week.

“The narrative quickly shifted to a possibly more subdued path for inflation next year and what would happen if there was a significant slowdown in growth and a recession,” said Subadra Rajappa, head of of the US rates strategy at Societe Generale in New York.

The pan-European STOXX 600 index lost 0.45% and the MSCI gauge of stocks across the world lost 1.24%.

On Wall Street, the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 0.78%, the S&P 500 lost 1.18% and the Nasdaq Composite fell 1.15%.

Unemployment claims data showed U.S. jobless claims fell last week, indicating the labor market is still tight despite the Fed’s aggressive rate hikes to cool demand.

Expectations of higher rates strengthened the dollar and weakened other currencies. The dollar plunged 3.7% last week when U.S. consumer inflation data for October came in below expectations and raised hopes the Fed could halt rate hikes.

The euro fell 0.61% to $1.0329 and the yen weakened 0.74% against the dollar to 140.57.

Sterling fell 1.08% to $1.1779 the day after Britain’s new government presented a new budget plan of 55 billion pounds ($64.93 billion) in tax increases and spending cuts.

DoubleLine portfolio manager Bill Campbell said the pound’s rebound over the past month meant the top budget headlines were likely already priced in and the UK experience may well be mirrored elsewhere, particularly with the impending recessions and the ongoing energy crisis.

“Fed comments, like resilient spending numbers, have done little to help those looking for an imminent pivot,” with caution permeating markets accordingly, National Australia Bank economist Ted Nugent wrote in a customer note.

Concerns about the economic outlook have deeply inverted the Treasury yield curve, suggesting investors are bracing for a recession.

The 2-year/10-year yield spread closed below -60 basis points for the first time since 1982 “which is concerning considering its historical accuracy as a leading indicator of recessions,” Jim said. Deutsche Bank Reid.

The spread between two- and ten-year Treasury yields, seen as a harbinger of recession, was -69.8 basis points.

The yield on the benchmark 10-year bond rose 9.6 basis points to 3.790%.

U.S. crude recently fell 3.19% to $82.86 a barrel and Brent to $90.92, down 2.09% on the day.

Nickel, copper and tin all fell sharply, with industrial metals hit hard. Spot gold fell 0.9% to $1,758.45 an ounce.

(Reporting by Herbert Lash, additional reporting by Marc Jones in London, Kevin Buckland in Tokyo; editing by Bernadette Baum and Kirsten Donovan)

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Wall Street rallies for its best week since June on rate hopes https://thewindow.net/wall-street-rallies-for-its-best-week-since-june-on-rate-hopes/ Fri, 11 Nov 2022 21:22:30 +0000 https://thewindow.net/wall-street-rallies-for-its-best-week-since-june-on-rate-hopes/

NEW YORK (AP) — Wall Street racked up more gains Friday on its massive one-day rally earlier to close out its best week since the summer.

The S&P 500 rose 0.9% daily after climbing 5.5% for its best day in more than two years. The Dow Jones Industrial Average added 32 points to its rise of over 1,200 from the previous day, while the Nasdaq composite jumped 1.9%.

Markets bounced back after China has relaxed some of its strict anti-COVID measures, which have hurt the world’s second-largest economy. Hopes of more growth from China helped not only stocks but also oil prices rise, with U.S. crude rising 2.9% to $88.96 a barrel.

The main reason for this week’s euphoria in the markets was a report released on Thursday showing inflation in the United States has slowed more than expected last month. This raised hopes that the worst of inflation may be over and that the Federal Reserve may be less aggressive in raising interest rates to bring it under control, although analysts have warned that high inflation could be slow to fall and some have called the big rally on Wall Street overdone.

What the Fed does with rates is crucial for Wall Street, as hikes slow the economy and can cause a recession, while driving down stock prices. They have been the main reason for market difficulties this year.

Perhaps just as important as the severity of current inflation is the level at which US households imagine it in the years to come. Indeed, expectations that are too high can trigger a vicious cycle in which people speed up their purchases and take other actions that further aggravate inflation.

The Fed said preventing such a catastrophic loop is one of the reasons it has acted so aggressively in rate hikes. Inflation expectations are currently high relative to history, but a preliminary report on Friday suggested they are not moving much.

Median inflation expectations for the coming year among households rose to 5.1% from 5% a month earlier, according to a survey by the University of Michigan. Long-term inflation expectations, meanwhile, reached 3%. But it’s still in the same 2.9% to 3.1% range they’ve been in for 15 of the past 16 months.

High inflation helped send the general consumer sentiment survey reading falling more than economists expected.

“The consumer is focused on inflation and they feel it every day,” said Brian Price, head of investment management at Commonwealth Financial Network. “I wouldn’t expect us to see a rise in consumer confidence until inflation is under control.”

The Fed has already raised its key overnight rate to a range of 3.75% to 4%, from virtually zero in March. The likely scenario is still for it to rise further next year and then keep rates at that high level for some time.

The hope for the markets is that a slowdown in inflation could mean the Fed keeps the line lower and less painful for investors than it otherwise would have.

“They’ve been pretty clear from the start that they’re going to accelerate interest rate hikes,” Price said. “They need time to assess the data over the next few months.”

Traders are increasingly betting that the federal funds rate could hit a range of 4.75% to 5% early next year, according to CME Group. A week ago they saw a higher ultimate rate as more likely, with a large share expecting something like 5.25% to 5.50%.

Bond markets were closed to trading on Veterans Day. On Thursday, yields plunged as investors lowered their expectations of how aggressively the Fed will raise rates.

The S&P 500 rose 36.56 points to 3,992.93, and its 5.9% gain for the week was its third of the past four and its biggest since June. The Dow rose 32.49, or 0.1%, to 33,747.86, and the Nasdaq climbed 209.18, or 1.9%, to 11,323.33. Both also posted strong gains for the week.

The market has regularly reacted with exaggerated swings after the monthly inflation data report, according to Jonathan Golub, chief US equity strategist at Credit Suisse. And while Thursday’s report “was clearly a big positive, the market response seems out of step with the size of the surprise.”

Companies doing a lot of business in China and the region were particularly strong on Friday after the easing of anti-COVID restrictions. Wynn Resorts rose 8.3% and Las Vegas Sands gained 5.5%.

Tapestry rose 8.7% and Ralph Lauren 9.4% to also help lead the S&P 500 higher. Both companies reported higher-than-expected earnings for the latest quarter.

On the losing side are healthcare companies. Elevance Health fell 5.8% and Cigna 6%.

Meanwhile, in the crypto market, prices have fallen again amid the industry’s latest crisis of confidence. One of the largest trading platforms, FTX, filed for bankruptcy protection after its users began scrambling to withdraw their money over fears of its financial strength and after a bigger rival canceled a deal to buy the struggling company.

The exchange and its founder are under investigation by the Department of Justice and the Securities and Exchange Commission, and rivals have said that FTX’s failure could shake confidence in the wider industry.

Bitcoin fell below $16,800, down 6% from the previous day, according to CoinDesk. It set its record close to $69,000 almost exactly a year ago, and it was above $21,000 a week ago.

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AP Business Writers Damian J. Troise, Joe McDonald and Matt Ott contributed.

Copyright 2022 The Associated Press. All rights reserved. This material may not be published, broadcast, rewritten or redistributed without permission.

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Canada’s share drops at the close of trading; S&P/TSX Composite Index down 1.61% https://thewindow.net/canadas-share-drops-at-the-close-of-trading-sp-tsx-composite-index-down-1-61/ Wed, 09 Nov 2022 21:28:59 +0000 https://thewindow.net/canadas-share-drops-at-the-close-of-trading-sp-tsx-composite-index-down-1-61/

Investing.com – Canadian stocks were down at Wednesday’s close as losses in the , and , sectors pushed stocks lower.

At the close in Toronto, the was down 1.61%.

The biggest gainers in the session were EQB Inc (TSX:), which rose 12.24% or 5.55 points to trade at 50.88 at the close. Home Group Capital Inc . (TSX:) added 5.38% or 1.32 points to end at 25.87 and IAMGold Corporation (TSX:) rose 3.13% or 0.07 points to 2.31 late in the session.

The biggest losers were Converge Technology Solutions Corp (TSX:), which fell 13.41% or 0.66 points to trade at 4.26 late in the session. Nuvei Corp (TSX:) fell 10.74% or 4.34 points to end at 36.08 and Vermilion Energy Inc . (TSX:) fell 10.35% or 3.42 points to 29.61.

Declining stocks outnumbered rising stocks by 782 to 229 and 100 ended unchanged on the Toronto Stock Exchange.

The , which measures the implied volatility of S&P/TSX compound options, rose 0.23% to 22.07.

In commodities trading, gold futures for December delivery fell 0.45% or 7.65 to $1,708.35 per troy ounce. Meanwhile, crude oil for December delivery fell 3.78% or 3.36 to $85.55 a barrel, while the January Brent oil contract fell 3.16% or 3, 01 to trade at $92.35 a barrel.

CAD/USD fell 0.77% to 0.74, while CAD/EUR was unchanged 0.12% to 0.74.

US dollar index futures rose 0.75% to 110.36.

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Macro Morning – MacroBusiness https://thewindow.net/macro-morning-macrobusiness/ Sun, 06 Nov 2022 22:30:25 +0000 https://thewindow.net/macro-morning-macrobusiness/ U.S. stocks surged on Friday amid mixed employment numbers in the latest nonfarm payrolls (NFP) and the breakdown of China’s COVID zero policy, as traders discounted the Fed’s recent rate hike . The USD lost a lot of ground against the major currency pairs, with the Euro bouncing back up to the 99 level, the Australian Dollar almost back to its recent high at the 65 cent level. US bond markets saw their curve flatten further, with 10-year Treasury yields remaining above the 4.15% level, while commodities were strong on the weaker US dollar, crude Brent returning almost to the level of USD 98 per barrel, while gold soared to almost end at USD 1,700 per barrel. ounce level.

Turning to equity markets in Asia since Friday’s session, mainland Chinese equity markets jumped out the door and continued to surge towards the close, with the Shanghai Composite ending up 2.3% higher at 3070 points. Meanwhile, the Hang Seng index surged again, up more than 5% to finally break out of its sell funk, breaking through the 16,000 level to close at 16,161. The daily chart showed potential action on the bottom last week, although I was suspicious if this was long-lasting action or just short cover. Just below this level are the 2008 lows, as the 15,000 point level was the key area to watch for signs of breaking support, but here is a bullish engulfing candle that has almost cleared the trailing ATR resistance, so we could see a continuation of a meltdown rally as the new trading week begins:

Japanese stock markets were the oddest, with the Nikkei 225 falling sharply to close down 1.6% at 27,199 points. The daily price chart showed a possible breakout brewing here under overhead resistance at the 27500 level, but Wall Street’s previous mixed lead and lack of internal confidence kept things at bay. Futures are pointing to a better start to the trading week, with momentum still quite positive if not overbought levels, but watch the price action which appears to be stuck below resistance at the 27,600 point level:

Australian stocks had a subdued weekend with the ASX200 closing up 0.5%, returning almost above the 6900 point level to end at 6892 points. SPI futures are up over 1.3% on Friday night’s surge on Wall Street, so we may see the 7,000 point level finally cleared, bringing price action back to the high. of August. The daily chart looked a lot like Japanese equities, with the big breakout after the RBA meeting, but yet another wild rebound underway as the uptrend from the October lows is still fairly intact. Daily momentum has held above the positive zone and is solidly overbought again, but watch for support below at the lower moving average as an uncle point:

European markets also surged higher after the recent BOE rate hike, with the Eurostoxx 50 index gaining 2.6% to 3,688 points in one of its best sessions in weeks. The daily chart also showed price action similar to the Asian markets, but with much more momentum as it cleared resistance at the 3550 level and based here in the 3600 point area. Daily momentum is back to overbought levels and ready to push even higher with recent lows in the 3550 point area providing an easy uncle point to further test this rally:

Wall Street had a yo-yo session to say the least and while the finish was good – the NASDAQ and S&P500 both up 1.3% – in relative terms it may not be enough. good compared to other markets. In fact, the NASDAQ daily chart still looks quite weak, as does the S&P daily below with price action above the 3700 point barrier but far from its recent highs and still below the trendline. bullish from October lows. I still maintain that the aggressive actions of the Fed cannot change a return to the 3600 point level here by the end of the year, with the upcoming midterm elections perhaps providing a catalyst for more selling:

Currency markets, however, saw the biggest moves after the rise in NFP printing, with the USD crushed by currency majors in a one-way move, unlike the yo-yo on Wall Street. The Euro had a big reversal, lifting almost 200 pips to almost return to parity and making up for all the dips in the trading week. The Union currency is likely to take a break here below the magical 1.00 level as momentum plays on near-term catch-up, so watch for a possible return to the 99 low tonight:

USDJPY saw a slight dip to end the week just above the 146 level after its recent wild run after the FOMC meeting, with volatility easing down here to the mid support level of 146. This brings the pair back on the short-term downtrend line with an inability to breach the previous intrasession high at the 148.80 level and no positive critical overbought momentum:

The Aussie dollar also climbed in line with the other majors, heading straight for the 65 level to hit a new weekly high, ending just below previous highs at the 65 handle proper. I still maintain that resistance is still too strong at all previous levels with the 65 handle still the area to beat in the medium term as traders will now position themselves lower as the Fed is much more hawkish than the boffins at Martin Place . The short-term momentum is in a similar position to the Euro with potential for a retracement at the open here this morning:

Oil markets are trying to regain some of their recent loss of confidence as the Saudi and Iranian turmoil continues, with Brent crude rising Friday evening, hitting former October highs at $98 a barrel. The daily momentum is really building here with stronger overbought readings with price action wanting to get back to the magic $100 level with shorter term resistance at the $98 level, the area that will likely clear next:

Gold was under more pressure than any other sub-Dollar, so it’s no surprise that it climbed higher than most, with a quick return to previous October highs near the $1700 level per ounce (upper horizontal black line). This signifies a re-examination of the prevailing downtrend, putting at least short-term doubt as overhead resistance at the $1675 level has been cleared, negating a return to October lows at $1600. The price action has gotten ahead of itself somewhat, so I expect a small retracement, but then a lot of new buyers will step in shortly:

Glossary of technical analysis acronyms and terms:

ATR: Average True Range – measures the degree of price volatility averaged over a period of time

ATR Support/Resistance: a ratchet mechanism that follows the price below/above a trend, which when exceeded shows above-average volatility

CCI: Commodity Channel Index: a dynamic reading that calculates the current price away from the statistical average or “typical” price to indicate overbought (well above the average) or oversold (well below the average)

Moving Average Low/High: price moving average in this case the low and high for the day/hour which creates a band around the actual price movement

FOMC: Federal Open Market Committee, monthly meeting of the Federal Reserve concerning monetary policy (setting of interest rates)

DOE: US Department of Energy

Uncle Point: or stop loss point, a level at which you have clearly mistaken your position, so shout uncle and get out!badly about your position, then shout uncle and get out!

Latest posts from Chris Becker (see everything)
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US futures advance ahead of Fed open policy meeting https://thewindow.net/us-futures-advance-ahead-of-fed-open-policy-meeting/ Tue, 01 Nov 2022 12:28:04 +0000 https://thewindow.net/us-futures-advance-ahead-of-fed-open-policy-meeting/

Wall Street posted a rise in pre-market trading ahead of this week’s Federal Reserve policy meeting, with most economists expecting the sixth hike this year in the central bank’s main borrowing rate.

S&P 500 futures rose 0.9% on Tuesday and Dow futures rose 0.6%.

Stubborn inflation, the likes of which has not been seen in the United States since the early 1980s, prompted the Fed to rapidly raise its main benchmark borrowing rate in an effort to cool the economy. Analysts wait for the fed to announce at the end of its meeting on Wednesday that it has further raised its rate by three quarters of a point. It would be the central bank’s fourth consecutive 0.75 percentage point increase.

The Fed has already raised its short-term policy rate by 3 percentage points since March, the fastest rate of increase since the early 1980s. The increases are aimed at raising borrowing costs for mortgages, loans automobiles and business loans and curb inflation by slowing the economy.

While investors mostly expect rate hikes to continue through the end of this year, there has been some hope that the Fed will ease somewhat after the government announced that the economy American contracted in the first half. However, the United States back to growth over the past quarter and generally healthy corporate earnings reports, sparked a wave of buying on Wall Street in October.

More than half of S&P 500 companies reported results and posted overall earnings growth of 2.3%, according to FactSet.

U.S. markets ended lower on Monday, but major indexes still posted big gains for October, including the best month for the Dow Jones Industrial Average since 1976. The broader S&P 500, the benchmark for many funds indices, posted its first monthly gain since July, as did the Nasdaq composite.

In Asia overnight, Hong Kong jumped more than 5% and other global markets also rose after a Chinese industry survey showed activity improved.

The monthly manufacturing gauge from Caixin, a Chinese business news magazine, has helped counter renewed concerns about coronavirus outbreaks. It showed that activity declined in October, but at a slower pace than the previous month.

The Hang Seng index in Hong Kong jumped 5.2% to 15,455.27 after a comment circulated on social media saying, without citing any sources, that the ruling Communist Party may set up a “reopening committee to examine ways to reduce virus checks that have disrupted trade and business.

A Foreign Ministry spokesman, Zhao Lijian, told reporters he was “not aware of what you just mentioned” when asked about the rumour.

In other Asian exchanges, the Nikkei 225 in Tokyo added 0.3% to 27,678.92, while the Kospi in Seoul jumped 1.8% to 2,335.22. Sydney’s S&P-ASX 200 gained 1.6% to 6,976.90. India Sensex advanced 0.4%. The Shanghai Composite Index gained 2% to 2,940.75.

In midday European trading, the German DAX gained 1.3% and in Paris, the CAC40 jumped 1.8%. Britain’s FTSE 100 jumped 1.6%.

The European Union’s statistical agency, Eurostat, announced on Monday that inflation hit 10.7% in October, another record high in the 19 countries that use the euro currency, fueled by high natural gas and electricity prices due to Russia’s war against Ukraine.

Investors are also awaiting the US government’s monthly jobs report on Friday to see if the hot job market is cooling as inflation weighs on businesses. So far this year, the labor market has remained tight, with unemployment around a 50-year low at 3.5% and businesses creating jobs at a brisk pace.

Wall Street still has plenty of earnings to review from big companies this week. Pfizer shares rose 3% after announcing sales and earnings above Wall Street targets. CVS reports Wednesday and Starbucks releases results Thursday.

Abiomed shares jumped more than 50% in premarket after Johnson & Johnson announced it would spend $16.6 billion to buy the cardiovascular technology company.

In energy markets, benchmark U.S. crude oil gained $1.24 to $87.77 a barrel in electronic trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange. Brent crude, the basis for international oil pricing, added $1.31 to $94.12 a barrel in London.

The dollar fell to 147.26 yen from 148.73 yen on Monday. The euro fell from 98.82 to 99.32 cents.

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AP Business Writer Joe McDonald in Beijing contributed. Kurtenbach reported from Bangkok; Ott reported from Washington.

Copyright 2022 The Associated Press. All rights reserved. This material may not be published, broadcast, rewritten or redistributed without permission.

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QNGY, AGLE, NUVL, BHSE, SATX, DUO, PAQC, VIOT, DAIO, HTCR, SND, OBLG, EGHT, CVU, MCRB, SRRK, DXCM, NGM, PFSI, VSTM, IONM, RETO, THRD, DRRX, TCBX, KNSL, APPF, ATHX https://thewindow.net/qngy-agle-nuvl-bhse-satx-duo-paqc-viot-daio-htcr-snd-oblg-eght-cvu-mcrb-srrk-dxcm-ngm-pfsi-vstm-ionm-reto-thrd-drrx-tcbx-knsl-appf-athx/ Sat, 29 Oct 2022 02:29:36 +0000 https://thewindow.net/qngy-agle-nuvl-bhse-satx-duo-paqc-viot-daio-htcr-snd-oblg-eght-cvu-mcrb-srrk-dxcm-ngm-pfsi-vstm-ionm-reto-thrd-drrx-tcbx-knsl-appf-athx/

  • These are some of the biggest stock gainers of the day.

Quanergy Systems (QNGY) – Up 155.81%

Quanergy Systems recently filed an RFP for 9.8 million units at $1.53 per unit. And each unit consists of common stock and warrants.

Aeglea BioTherapeutics (AGLE) – Up 61.4%

Wells Fargo has upgraded Aeglea BioTherapeutics from an “Equal Weight” rating to “Overweight”. And the price target changed from $1.50 to $2.

Nuvalent (NUVL) – Up to 60.64%

BMO Capital analysts raise Nuvalent’s target price from $28 to $50. Assessment: market performance

Bull Horn Holdings (BHSE) – Up 43.98%

Pursuant to the requirements of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, Nasdaq Stock Market LLC has certified that it has reasonable grounds to believe that it meets all of the requirements to file a Form 25.

Acquiring Endurance (SATX) – Up 40.49%

SatixFy Communications began trading on the NYSE after completing a special purpose acquisition company merger.

Fangdd Network Group Ltd (DUO) – Up 36.62%

N / A

Provident Acquisition Corp (PAQC) – Up 32.69%

Perfect Corp., a global leader in providing augmented reality (AR) and artificial intelligence (AI) software-as-a-service (SaaS) solutions to the beauty and fashion industries, and Provident Acquisition Corp. (PAQC), a special purpose acquisition company, have announced the completion of their previously announced business combination.

Viomi Technology (VIOT) – Up 24.97%

N / A

Data I/O (DAIO) – Up 23.38%

Q3 results – Net sales of $7.2 million; reservations of $7.1 million

HeartCore Enterprises (HTCR) – Up 23.18%

HeartCore Enterprises recently announced that it has signed an agreement with Transcosmos Digital Technology (TCDT) to license its advanced process mining tool Apromore. And under an exclusive reseller agreement for the Japanese market with Apromore, as part of its suite of strategic assets and arrangements, HeartCore is focused on helping Japanese companies accelerate their digital transformation.

Smart Sand Stock (SND) – Up 22.53%

N / A.

Oblong (OBLG) – Up 21.43%

N / A

8×8 (EGHT) – Up to 21.11%

Needham analysts have assigned the company a price target of $8 with a “Buy” rating.

CPI Aerostructures (CVU) – Up 20.47%

N / A

Seres Therapeutics (MCRB) up 19.73%

Results and operational progress will be announced on 2/11

Scholar Rock Holding (SRRK) – Up 19.64%

Invus Public Equities acquired 130,265 shares at $8.0404 each

DexCom (DXCM) – Up 19.38%

Third Quarter Earnings: DexCom reported third quarter EPS of $0.28, $0.04 higher than analyst estimates of $0.24. And revenue for the quarter was $769.6 million versus the consensus estimate of $751.74 million. And DexCom estimates fourth-quarter 2022 revenue at $2.88-2.91 billion, versus consensus of $2.89 billion.

NGM Biopharmaceuticals (NGM) – Up 17.36%

EcoR1 Capital, LLC’s regulatory filing shows an 8% stake in the company.

Pennymac Financial Services (PFSI) – Up 16.86%

Piper Sandler analysts raised PennyMac Financial’s price target to $82 from $78 and maintained an “overweight” rating for the company.

Verastem Oncologie (VSTM) – Up 17.14%

N / A

Assure Holdings (IONM) – Up 16.55%

Regulatory filings revealed that corporate directors had acquired a large number of shares.

ReTo Eco-Solutions (NQ: RETO) – Up 16.38%

The regulatory filing shows that the company may offer, issue and sell from time to time common stock, debt securities, warrants, rights or units up to $200 million or its equivalent in any other currency , currency unit or composite currency or currencies in one or more issues.

Third Harmonic Bio (THRD) – Up to 15.71%

Large number of warrants exercised by company executives

DURECT (DRRX) – Up 15.61%

N / A

Third Coast Bancshares (TCBX) – Up 15.48%

Deutsche Bank analysts have assigned the company a price target of $22 with a “Hold” rating.

Kinsale Capital Group (KNSL) – Up 15.22%

Kinsale Capital reported third-quarter EPS of $1.64, up $0.13 from analyst estimates of $1.51. And revenue for the quarter was $216.96 million versus the consensus estimate of $252.3 million.

AppFolio (APPF) – Up 15.21%

Third Quarter Results: Total revenue was $125.1 million in the third quarter of 2022, an increase of 31% from $95.8 million in the third quarter of 2021. revenue for the full year is expected to be between $462 and $466 million.

Athersys (NQ:ATHX) – Up to 15%

N / A

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Canada’s share is higher at the close of trading; S&P/TSX Composite Index up 0.96% https://thewindow.net/canadas-share-is-higher-at-the-close-of-trading-sp-tsx-composite-index-up-0-96/ Wed, 26 Oct 2022 20:29:54 +0000 https://thewindow.net/canadas-share-is-higher-at-the-close-of-trading-sp-tsx-composite-index-up-0-96/

Investing.com – Canadian stocks were higher at Wednesday’s close, as gains in sectors , and propelled stocks higher.

At the close in Toronto, the gain was 0.96%.

The biggest winners from the session on the were Capstone Mining Corporation (TSX:), which rose 11.33% or 0.34 points to trade at 3.34 at the close. Canopy Growth Corp (TSX:) gained 8.33% or 0.33 points to end at 4.29 and HudBay Minerals Inc (TSX:) rose 7.53% or 0.39 points to 5.57 late in the session.

The biggest losers were Converge Technology Solutions Corp (TSX:), which fell 2.88% or 0.20 points to trade at 6.75 late in the session. Shopify Inc (TSX:) fell 2.88% or 1.17 points to end at 39.46 and Canada Goose Holdings Inc (TSX:) fell 2.58% or 0.63 points to 23.83.

Rising stocks outnumbered falling stocks 757 to 277 and 90 ended unchanged on the Toronto Stock Exchange.

The , which measures the implied volatility of S&P/TSX compound options, rose 5.75% to 23.37.

In commodities trading, gold futures for December delivery rose 0.60% or 9.90 to $1,667.90 per troy ounce. Meanwhile, crude oil for December delivery rose 3.31% or 2.82 to $88.14 a barrel, while the January Brent oil contract rose 2.51% or 2, 30 to trade at $94.04 a barrel.

CAD/USD was unchanged 0.36% to 0.74, while CAD/EUR fell 0.77% to 0.73.

US dollar index futures fell 1.16% to 109.55.

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Rupee depreciated 5.4% against US dollar, less than 8.9% drop in 6 major currencies: FM’s September economic review https://thewindow.net/rupee-depreciated-5-4-against-us-dollar-less-than-8-9-drop-in-6-major-currencies-fms-september-economic-review/ Sun, 23 Oct 2022 02:08:46 +0000 https://thewindow.net/rupee-depreciated-5-4-against-us-dollar-less-than-8-9-drop-in-6-major-currencies-fms-september-economic-review/

The rupee depreciated 5.4% against the US dollar, less than 8.9% of the 6 major currencies: Ministry of Finance economic review for September

Photo: BCCL

New Delhi: The Ministry of Finance released its September Monthly Economic Review on Saturday in which India’s economic performance in the first half of 2022-2023 was rated as impressive compared to the world. Six months into the current fiscal year, India has managed inflation better than most countries in the world, the government said.
Wholesale and retail inflation, which averaged 16.1% and 7.3%, respectively, in the first quarter of FY2022-23, has declined. Wholesale inflation has now fallen to 12.4% and retail inflation is a notch above 7% in the second quarter of the 2022-23 fiscal year, the finance ministry said in its review.

He further highlighted the Centre’s efforts in managing inflation saying, “Proactive measures including reductions in excise and import duties, collection of export duties and restrictions, and build-up of buffer stocks, have helped to limit inflation on the supply side”.

Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman assured that the upcoming FY24 budget will focus on two key challenges: economic growth and rising inflation.

Here are some highlights from the September Economic Review:

– The rupee, which hit historic lows, depreciated 5.4% against the US dollar. However, the depreciation is lower than that of 8.9% of the six major currencies in the DXY index. The Fed’s monetary tightening strengthened the US dollar and consequently led to the weakening of all currencies. The volatility of the movement of the Indian rupee against the US dollar has been minimized by calibrated interventions of the RBI in the foreign exchange market.

– India’s real economic growth in 2022-23 is expected to be 6.8%, the second highest in the G20. At 6.1% for 2023-2024, it will be the highest in the G-20. Global energy prices and supplies remain sources of concern. Geopolitical conflicts could further intensify supply chain pressures that have eased recently.

– The first half of FY23 saw fewer growth and stability issues compared to the world as a whole. As measured by the composite PMI, the level of economic activity was higher for India at 56.7 compared to 51.0 for the world from April to September 2022.

– Retail price inflation in India over the past six months stood at 7.2%, less than global inflation of 8.0%, represented by the median inflation of major economies. It remained stable throughout the April-September period at nearly 7%, the statement said.

– Wholesale inflation has fallen to 12.4% and retail inflation is a notch above 7% in the second quarter of FY2022-23. The gap between wholesale inflation and retail inflation has narrowed, indicating that the magnitude of the pass-through from input costs to retail inflation affecting consumers is likely to be smaller in the future. coming.

– RBI repo rate hikes and lower global commodity prices helped contain inflation. In addition, government measures, including reductions in excise and import duties, collection of export duties and restrictions, and buffer stocks, have helped to contain inflation on the side of the offer. Barring further extreme weather conditions, retail food price inflation is expected to decline over the coming months, leading to lower headline retail price inflation.

– The growth story in the first half of FY23 highlighted the continued push the government has given to its capital spending. Rising levels of capital spending were also supported by stronger revenue generation following improved tax compliance, increased corporate profitability and growing economic activity.

– PMI Manufacturing remained in the expansion zone in September 2022. Expansion was driven by new business growth, resilient demand and expanding operational capacity. In addition, business confidence also improved as input cost inflation fell to its lowest level in 23 months due to lower industrial metal prices, leading to higher corporate sector profits. private.

– Foreign direct investment (FDI) inflows from April to July reached $18.8 billion, compared to $13.1 billion in 2021-22. Despite Fed rate hikes, FDI outflows declined in the first half of FY23 compared to the previous half (H2 of FY22) as foreign portfolio investors became net buyers in second quarter of fiscal year 2022-23 with a net investment of $3.3 billion.

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